
WTO flag
License: Creative Commons
Credit: Flickr/quiquemendizabal
Source: Flickr

License: Creative Commons
Credit: Flickr/quiquemendizabal
Source: Flickr

When Mexico hands the G20 presidency to Russia on 1 December 2012, it will bequeath a G20 that is still doing some soul-searching on how to lead the world economy. Recent news suggests there is plenty to do. The global economy is in the doldrums, with growth forecasts for the BRICS and the Euro area dropping steeply. Climate change is increasingly visible, and increasingly costly. Food and energy prices are still high and volatile.

The European Union’s communication on trade, growth and development, launched on 27 January, sets the framework for its actions on trade and development in the coming decade.

While Pascal Lamy continues to describe the Doha Development Round as ‘deadlocked’, the rest of us are still waiting for the official pronunciation of its death. After three days of deliberations at the latest WTO Ministerial Conference, there remained little light at the end of the tunnel.

Trade ministers will convene in Geneva this week to consider the next steps along the long road of the Doha Round of the World Trade Organization negotiations that were launched in 2001. The mood has been bleak for some time. The Doha Round is moribund.

I recently asked whether the G20 could come to the rescue to solve yet another crisis. The general assessment now is that it kicked Cannes down the road instead.

License: Creative Commons
Credit: flickr/wirralwater
Source: Flickr
After a decade of negotiations, there are few signs that the long-running Doha round of global trade talks will be finalised soon. Looking forward, trade officials now openly speak about a so-called “plan B” involving salvaging non-divisive issues from the current round and agreeing upon those as a stand-alone agreement. This event will investigate the key factors shaping the future world trading system.

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, capital flows into emerging and developing economies have bounced back quickly from their slump in 2008. This has been triggered by prospects of strong output growth, investors regaining their appetite for risk, and, in particular, by ‘carry trade’ practices favoured by the exceptionally low interest rates in developed countries.