Global Monitoring Report 2008: MDGs and the Environment - Agenda for Inclusive and Sustainable Development

Tuesday 22nd April, 1:45-3:00pm, ODI, 111 Westminster Bridge Road, London, SE1 7JD

The Global Monitoring Report 2008: MDGs and the Environment - Agenda for Inclusive and Sustainable Development comes at the halfway point in the effort to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015. The 2008 GMR warns that, if the current situation persists, most developing countries will fall short of meeting the MDGs. Though much of the world is set to halve extreme poverty by then, the goals of reducing child and maternal mortality are unlikely to be met, with serious shortfalls also likely in the primary school completion, nutrition, and sanitation goals.

The special theme of this year's report is the link between environment and development, with a particular focus on the effects of climate change and the degradation of natural resources. The GMR stresses that, to sustain growth in developing countries, donors and policymakers in developing countries must anticipate long term pressures on the global commons, but also support measures to cushion the impact of food and oil price shocks as well as financial market turmoil on poor people in the short term.

The joint World Bank-IMF report also assesses progress on aid effectiveness and on the ability of international financial institutions to leverage assistance more effectively as their share of aid shrinks.

To get back on track to meet the MDGs, the report proposes a 6-point agenda for inclusive and sustainable development. The hope is that the agenda proposed in the GMR will be taken up by decision makers at both the September High-level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Ghana and at the December Financing for Development conference in Doha. The international development community must act fast in 2008, since this year offers unique opportunities for turning the tide and for reaching these globally agreed goals.

The Global Monitoring Report (GMR) is an annual report produced with the IMF.  2008 marks the halfway point to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and is an appropriate point to get a consensus on what should be the response to the highlighted shortfalls in the area of Climate Change.

Zia Qureshi

The world is on track on poverty reduction and gender parity at school MDGs, but serious shortfalls are likely on nutrition, education, health, and sanitation goals

There has been significant progress made on some of the MDGs but shortfalls on most.  For example:

Poverty is down due to good Economic Growth in countries like India and China

Hunger is rising due to high food prices

There are shortfalls in Education.

Africa lags on all MDGs, South Asia is succeeding in some areas, such as economic goals, but failing in their human goals. At country level, most countries are off track to meet most MDGs

Progress toward MDGs slowest in fragile states - even negative on some MDGs

The focus now should be on the future and what is the agenda ahead.  The MDGs remain achievable with more effort from developed countries and recognition of the fact that development and environmental stability are linked. 

• In this Year of Action for MDGs, need to agree on priority actions and milestones for monitoring progress
• Report emphasizes a six-point agenda for inclusive and sustainable development

1. Sustain and broaden the growth momentum
2. Achieve better results in human development
3. Integrate development and environmental sustainability
4. Scale up aid and increase its effectiveness
5. Harness trade for strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth
6. Leverage IFI support for inclusive and sustainable development

• Increased risks from financial turbulence - developing-country growth slowing but still robust

There has been a sharp rise in energy and food prices which adds to risks

• Growth in Africa has improved, but varies widely across countries
• Growth needs to be more inclusive - both across and within countries
• More but better spending on education and health

Public spending on education and health typically favors the rich

• National income positively related to health quality—public health spending alone is not
• Stronger focus needed on combating malnutrition—higher food prices increase urgency

Incidence of stunting remains high in low-income countries

• Environmental health risks—a significant concern

Economic burden of poor environmental health can be high - 1.5-4% of GDP annually

• Deforestation causes loss of forest equivalent in size to Panama or Sierra Leone every year
• Developing countries are most vulnerable to climate change and least able to adapt
• Mitigation calls for common but differentiated responsibilities
• Time to deliver on aid commitments is now

Most of the promised increase in aid has not yet materialized

• Doha remains crucial
• Support to agriculture has not been declining
• Increase aid for trade—to promote inclusiveness in exploitation of trade opportunities
• Trade policy should facilitate transfer of environmentally friendly technologies

Environmental goods currently confront significant trade restrictiveness

• MDBs had record disbursements in 2007
• Even as their relative financing role declines, international financial institutions’ impact through leverage remains key

Kirk Hamilton

• Diversity of food price impacts on poverty
• Rising food prices - countries are responding, but differently
• Special Theme:
  Environmental Sustainability
• Natural resource dependence and sustainability
• Natural resource dependence patterns vary across regions
• Depletion of natural resources is often associated with declining national wealth
• Depletion of natural resources: it’s not just oil
• Monitoring environmental policies and institutions

Progress in institutional and policy performance has been uneven across regions (CPIA environment scores)
CPIA disaggregated scores show that there is a gap between policy formulation and capacity to enforce

• Global Environmental Sustainability-
  One Size Does Not Fit All:

High child mortality countries (e.g. Mali)
Provide water and sanitation, improve access to electricity
Increasing water scarcity (e.g. MNA) Increase water use efficiency, define water use rights
Agriculture-dependent countries (e.g. Ethiopia) Manage land and water resources, diversify assets

• Climate Change Priorities:

Mitigation:

Common but differentiated responsibilities across countries

Carbon intensity of GDP must be reduced by:

• pricing / trading carbon
• development and diffusion of cleaner, energy efficient technologies
• development of renewable energy
• financing and technology transfer
• reducing deforestation using carbon finance

Adaptation:
For developing countries, best way to adapt is to develop, which will:

• diversify economies
• reduce climate-sensitive diseases: malaria, malnutrition and diarrhea
• provide the resources to adapt

Programs to reduce vulnerability and “climate proof” investments
Implementing early warning systems for heat waves, floods, droughts
Building dams to accommodate increased runoff

World Bank: Strategic Framework on Climate Change and Development

1. Make effective climate action – both adaptation and mitigation – part of core development efforts
2. Address the resource gap through existing and innovative instruments for concessional finance
3. Facilitate the development of innovative market mechanisms
4. Create enabling environment for and leveraging private sector finance
5. Accelerate the deployment of existing and development of new climate-friendly technologies
6. Step-up policy research, knowledge management and capacity building

Owen Barder

Two Views:

1. There is a pessimistic view on Climate Change which comes out of the report which is worrying.  Is the ‘golden era’ faltering?  Is public opinion drifting away from the agenda?  Rising food prices and economic issues on a domestic level make it harder to push the aid agenda, the mood is not right.
2. There is an optimistic message too, which emphasizes progress that has been made especially in China and India.  Also, the climate change agenda provides opportunity for the world to recognize the value of existing assets in developing countries, such as carbon.  This would lead to transfer of wealth to poorer countries.  The rise in food prices could actually lead to benefit for developing countries as the main production comes from then.  The urban poor however, would not receive any benefit from this.

Management of global institutions in the next few years will determine whether the outcome worldwide is positive or negative.  We need to succeed in sorting out the aid system, getting agreement on carbon markets and live up to promises on aid for long term financing of developing countries.  Gordon Brown’s recent speech at Harvard highlights the need for institutions that will manage this global agreement process and enable the world to achieve these goals.

Discussion

Can you explain how the achievements made on MDGs correlate to the gaps between rich and poor worldwide and explain what the achievements mean to post-conflict countries?
Fragile states are falling behind most seriously and the report does cover these countries in its assessment.  It aims to highlight the special challenges in promoting growth and development in these countries.

Many countries are not on track but there is a ‘business as usual’ atmosphere about the report, apart from climate change, where there appear to be lots of ideas, isn’t this contradictory? 
This is a worry but the UK government is focusing on the call to action and has spoken of it in terms of a development emergency.  They aim to stick to the promises made at Gleneagles and will be holding the call to action summit at the UN in September.

Does the WB consider organic agriculture at all with the current food price situation? 
We have tried to learn from experience with integrated pest management in countries like Indonesia.  More broadly there are specific safe-guard policies over use of pesticides and we have conducted research into health impacts of excessive use of pesticides.  Beyond that, there is a huge trade off between productivity in places like Africa where they are using 1% of the fertilizer of richer countries, which is a huge constraint on their productivity, and trying to boost productivity while keeping use of fertilizers to a minimum.