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Scenarios
Scenario testing is a group activity. But the basic premise can
also be used more widely in all kinds of communication, whether
in a policy paper (e.g. outline three possible future scenarios
in the introduction), a workshop presentation, or an email debate.
Generally, scenario testing would deliver three scenarios: a positive
(or optimistic), negative (or pessimistic), and neutral (or middle
of the road) scenario.
By actively using 'scenarios' in all kinds of communication activities,
several concerns and outcomes can be communicated at the same time.
You are able to:
- Identify general, broad, driving forces, which are applicable
to all scenarios;
- Identify a variety of plausible trends within each issue or
trend (trends that vary depending on your assumptions so you get
positive and negative perspectives);
- Combine the trends so you get a series of scenarios (for example,
mostly positive trends identified in relation to an issue would
give a positive scenario).
'Scenario testing's greatest use is in developing an understanding
of the situation, rather than trying to predict the future'
(Caldwell, 2001).
Scenarios are a way of developing alternative futures based on
different combinations of assumptions, facts and trends, and areas
where more understanding is needed for your particular scenario
project. They are called 'scenarios' because they are like 'scenes'
in the theatre - a series of differing views or presentations on
the same general topic. Once you see several scenarios at the same
time, you better understand your options or possibilities (seminar
on Futures Techniques, available on the College of Agriculture and
Life Sciences website at: http://ag.arizona.edu/futures/tou/tut2-buildscenarios.html).
Method
- Invite participants who have knowledge of, or are affected by,
the proposal or issue of interest.
- Invite participants to identify the underlying paradigms or
unwritten laws of change; trends or driving forces and collect
into general categories (economy, socio/political, etc.); and
wildcards or uncertainties.
- Consider how these might affect a situation, either singly or
in combination, using these steps:
- review the big picture
- review general approaches to future studies
- identify what you know and what you don't know
- select possible paradigm shifts and use them as an overall
guide
- cluster trends and see which driving forces are most relevant
to your scenario
- Create alternative scenarios (similar to alternate scenes in
a play) by mixing wildcards with trends and driving forces; keep
the number of scenarios small (four is ideal because it avoids
the 'either/or' choice of two, and the good/bad/medium choice
of three).
- Write a brief report that states assumptions and future framework;
provides observations and conclusions; gives a range of possibilities;
and focuses on the next steps coming out of this study. Each scenario
should be about one page.
Source
Further resources on scenarios
Visioning
'Visioning' is similar to scenario planning. Visioning is a collective
exercise, but can also be adapted and used in various other communication
activities. The main objective is to make the problem and solution
visual. It follows the age-old communication advice: show,
don't tell.
Collective visioning exercises, carried out in a group, are used
to define and help achieve a desirable future. Visioning exercises
are regularly used in urban and strategic planning and allow participants
to create images that can help to guide change in the city. The
outcome of a visioning exercise is a long term plan, generally with
a 20 to 30 year horizon. Visioning exercises also provide a frame
for a strategy for the achievement of the vision. Alternatively,
some visioning tools may be used to promote thought and encourage
discussion of future land use and planning options, without the
need to create a future orientated document.
Method
In a typical visioning exercise a facilitator asks participants
to close their eyes and imagine they are walking along their shoreline
as they would like to see it in 15 years. What do they see? What
do the buildings look like? Where do people gather? How do they
make decisions? What are they eating? Where are they working? How
are they travelling? What is happening on the street? Where is the
centre of the neighbourhood? How does green space and water fit
into the picture? What do you see when you walk around after dark?
People record their visions in written or pictorial form: in diagrams,
sketches, models, photographic montages, and in written briefs.
Sometimes a professional illustrator helps turn mental images into
drawings of the city that people can extend and modify (see: www.vcn.bc.ca/citizens-handbook/2_16_visioning.html).
Invite the group to comment on these choices. Invite the participants
to discuss what was easy and what was difficult about the process,
what they learned, and how they might use the game in the future.
Uses/strengths
- Use when integration between issues is required.
- Use when a wide variety of ideas should be heard.
- Use when a range of potential solutions are needed.
- Visioning encourages participation for developing a long-range
plan.
- Visioning is an integrated approach to policymaking. With overall
goals in view, it helps avoid piecemeal and reactionary approaches
to addressing problems. Visioning uses participation as a source
of ideas in the establishment of long-range policy. It draws upon
deeply-held feelings about overall directions of public agencies
to solicit opinions about the future.
- When completed, visioning presents a democratically-derived
consensus.
- When using games such as 'Wheel of Coastal Fortune' as a visioning
tool, this offers the following advantages:
- Can access sections of the population who are typically
disempowered in traditional consultative processes (Luckie,
1995).
- Can be used to assess willingness to pay to preserve specific
environmental attributes or willingness to accept the loss
of these attributes.
- Can involve a broad range of participants (in demographic
terms).
Special considerations/weaknesses
- Organisation of the visioning exercise can be costly.
- Vision can be difficult to transfer into strategy and policy.
Source
Further resources on visioning
- Ames, Steven C. (1989) Charting a Course for Corviallis:
A Case Study of Community Visioning in Oregon, Gresham, Oregon:
American Planning Association (Oregon Chapter), Oregon Visions
Project, May.
- Ames, Steven C. (1993) The Agency Visioning Handbook: Developing
A Vision for the Future of Public Agencies, A Hands-on Guide for
Planners and Facilitators in State and Federal Natural Resource
Agencies. Arlington, Virginia: US Fish and Wildlife Service.
- United States Fish and Wildlife Service Cointelligence Institute
(2002) 'A Toolbox of processes for community work', see: www.co-intelligence.org/CIPol_ComunityProcesses.html
- COSLA (1998) 'Focusing on Citizens: A Guide to Approaches and
Methods', see: www.communityplanning.org.uk/documents/Engagingcommunitiesmethods.pdf
- New Economics Foundation and UK Participation Network (1998)
'Participation Works: 21 Techniques of community participation
for the 21st century, see: www.neweconomics.org/gen/uploads/doc_1910200062310_PWA4.doc
- US Department of Transportation (1996) Public Involvement Techniques
for Transportation Decision-Making, see: www.fhwa.dot.gov/reports/pittd/vision.htm
- US Environmental Protection Agency (2002) 'Green Communities
Where Do We Want To Be?', see: www.epa.gov/greenkit/3tools.htm
- Vancouver Citizens Committee and Charles Dobson, 'The Citizens
Handbook', see: www.vcn.bc.ca/citizens-handbook/
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