| (Diffusion of
Innovation Theory)
To understand the role of the change agent leaders (the Mavens,
Connectors and Sales-people) in the process we can draw further
insight from what sociologists call Diffusion Theory. Much of the
thinking in this was based on understanding how agricultural technological
innovations diffused through rural communities (see Everett Rogers
(1995) Diffusion of Innovations, New York Free Press). The
Innovators and Early Adopters are part of the visionaries, the minority,
who will experiment and take up an innovation or latch onto a new
idea. Usually they are highly entrepreneurial, want large scale
change, are prepared to take risks and work within small, flexible
business units. The
Early Majority, on the other hand, are more risk adverse and may
be constrained within large scale complex systems. They want improvement
but are pragmatists and will tend towards incremental change. The
Late Majority are the sceptical mass who wait to see what other
big players have done before taking something on. Finally they the
Laggards adopt.
This model of innovation diffusion translates closely to the Product
Life Cycle (see figure). During the Introduction stage take up is
invariably slow; the eccentric Innovators and Early Adoptors may
act quickly but are only a small part of society. The level of support
will often rise to a third of the population before the idea gains
significant support among the Early Majority. Once this happens
the numbers of converts rises exponentially and Growth occurs as
it sweeps through the Late Majority until saturation point in the
audience or market is approached - Maturity - and take-up slows,
with the adoption by the Laggards. Finally, and importantly, Decline
almost always occurs, unless the product or ideas is substantially
re-invented and re-presented. Ideas and products only have a limited
time-span. (The rise and fall of products has serious implications
for strategy and product mix. These stages, and the products that
occupy each stages, are further explored in the Boston
Box).
Gladwell, building on the work of Geoffrey Moore (1991) in Crossing
the Chasm, believes that it is the connectors, mavens and salespeople
(his 'Law of the Few') that translate and adapt ideas so that the
more conservative majority can understand them. They act as intermediaries
between the new ideas and the wide-spread social change.
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