13. The crisis model or 'paradigm shift'

Kuhn formulated his theory of 'paradigm shifts' to show that new scientific ideas were not widely adopted by the scientific community until there was a crisis. This occurred when the old answers gradually became more and more unsuitable for solving new puzzles. When the amount of unsolved puzzles became too great a sense of crisis developed, and the scientific community was forced to search for new answers. At this point, during the so-called paradigm shift, several new ideas will be tried out to see which ones are most suitable, and there will be some confusion as various ideas are tried out in parallel. Eventually the most suitable new answers will be found and these will constitute the new paradigm. Applied to the policy process, this theory indicates that new research findings are most likely to influence policy at a time of crisis, when policy makers for some reason feel that the traditional policies are no longer adequate for solving the problem at hand. The greater the sense of crisis, the greater the chance that research can affect core policy changes (such as a change in perceptions or values), as opposed to secondary changes (such as a change in policy phrases or operational procedures).

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