15. Variables for determining credibility in individual decision-making

Beach outlines different models that set out to explain which variables individuals use to determine credibility, when faced with a decision. The first is recognition: individuals rely on experience from previous situations to guide them in similar new situations. A second set of variables concern the role of scenarios, stories and arguments. Being able to see a situation in the light of a new ‘story-line’ may suddenly convince individuals to rely on evidence that previously did not seem credible. Thirdly, the incremental nature of many decision-making processes constitutes an important varible. An individual who is in the middle of an ongoing and incremental process tends to focus on particular problems as they emerge. What is regarded as ‘credible evidence’ may change from problem to problem. A fourth set of variables is related to moral and ethical values. Ethical values, especially those adhered to at an individual level, will guide a person’s perception of what evidence s/he is prepared to accept as credible.

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